The Secretariat of the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) publishes comprehensive data on production, consumption, trade and prices – covering both natural rubber (NR) and synthetic rubber (SR) – on a biannual basis the World Rubber Industry Outlook presents the latest long-term forecasts for the next ten years, covering the world economy as well as the vehicle, tyre and rubber sectors.
The June edition of the World Rubber Industry Outlook (WRIO) is now available from the IRSG. There are two economic (IMF and Downside) and Alternate Supply scenarios for the June 2016 WRIO.
The world total rubber consumption is estimated to increase by 1.8% in 2016, marginally above the 1.2% growth in 2015. World total rubber consumption is forecast to increase at an accelerating rate of 2.9% in 2017 and further at 3.3% in 2018 under the IMF Scenario. Over 2016-2025, the world total rubber consumption will increase by an average 2.7% per annum. Under the Downside Scenario, world total rubber consumption is forecast to grow by 1.4% to 27.1 million tonnes in 2016, before increasing by 2.1% in 2017 to 27.7 million tonnes.
World NR demand is forecast to increase by 1.3% to 12.3 million tonnes in 2016 under the IMF Scenario, and by 3.2% in 2017. The world total NR consumption will increase by an average 3.0% during 2016-2025. Under the Downside Scenario, the world NR demand is forecast to grow by 0.9% to 12.3 million tonnes in 2016, increasing to 16.1 million tonnes in 2025.
World SR demand is expected to increase to 14.9 million tonnes in 2016 and rise to 15.3 million tonnes in 2017 under the IMF Scenario. In 2025, the demand for SR will be 18.6 million tonnes. Demand for SR will increase by 1.8% to 14.8 million tonnes in 2016, under the Downside Scenario, subsequently increasing to 15.1 million tonnes in 2017.
The outlook for NR supply is sufficient to meet the demand of the industry for all forecast years under all three scenarios. In the short-term (2016-2017), the annual surplus is expected to be the largest under the Alternate Supply scenario.
All IRSG publications are available free of charge for Member Governments and members of the Panel of Associates. Annual subscriptions and single copies can be purchased by non-members via the website of the IRSG: www.rubberstudy.com